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Texas update

Texas Update 2/4/21

Last night I reported that Texas cases are increasing. We are the only state with an increasing trend right now. I was incredibly curious about this, so I looked into it further…

Cases…are plateauing which is probably explaining the mixed results the past few days. This is NOT the same trend as the rest of the country. We have a state R(T)=0.97. We are decreasing transmission, but barely. And, it looks like we are on the brink of exponentially increasing if we don’t do something about it. Case increases look like they are mainly driven by Trauma Service Area (TSA) H (Lufkin R=1.41); TSA L (Belton/Killeen R=1.39); TSA M (Waco; R=1.48); TSA N (College Station/Bryan R=1.87); TSA O (Austin R= 1.23). TSA J (Midland) is doing the best so far with a R=0.52. Go Midland!

Testing…We define hotspots as a Test Positivity Rate >10% AND more than 100 daily cases per 100,000. 232 counties in Texas (out of 254 counties) are considered hot spots today.

Hospitalizations…are decreasing as a state as a whole. However, there are some areas still doing very poorly. TSA E (DFW), TSA I (El Paso), TSA S (Victoria), and TSA T (Laredo) still have more than 20% of hospitalizations due to COVID19. Laredo has more than 47%!!. The Governor loosens restrictions for areas when this reaches 15% or less. And that’s for overall hospitalizations. ICU rates still look very scary. There isn’t one area in Texas that has below 20% COVID19 cases. The highest is in TSA H (Lufkin) and TSA S (Victoria) with more than 60% of their ICU’s taken up by COVID19.

Stay vigilant, Texas. We do not want this increasing, even more so before the new variants become dominant.

Love, YLE

Data Source: from our dashboard www.texaspandemic.org

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Behaviors National changes Texas update

National (U.S.) Update

Your national (U.S.) update as of Feb 3 at 8:00PM CST


Cases… continue to plummet. There’s no doubt that the 2020 holiday season caused a surge in cases. Which is consistent with what we saw on Memorial Day and July 4. The impact that human behavior, like the 2020 holiday season, has on human life is really quite fascinating. Anyways, our 7-day average is now the same as it was on November 12. Today, 42 states have a decreasing 7-day average of cases and 8 states are plateauing. Only Texas has an increasing 7-day case rate (11%).


Testing…is continuing to plateau, which isn’t necessarily bad. Especially if cases continue to decrease. Because this means that test positivity rate will be decreasing. Which is fantastic. We want TPR<10% (<5% is ideal) to get a handle on transmission.


Hospitalizations….are tanking too. Hospitalization trends follow case trends, so this makes sense. Hospitalizations in 41 states are decreasing, 9 states are plateauing, and 1 states is increasing (Vermont=15%). This is also fantastic news. But, remember, decreasing is relative. They are decreasing from the highest peak we’ve every experienced. Today, 91,440 people were on hospital beds for COVID19. This is still higher than the peak in April (59,779 hospitalizations) and July (59,718 hospitalizations).


Deaths…are increasing but significantly losing momentum. In other words, we should see our peak here soon (if it wasn’t today or yesterday). 27 states have decreasing deaths, 15 states are plateauing, and 9 states are increasing. The highest increase in deaths is Iowa, closely followed by South Carolina. Today 3,685 souls succumbed to COVID19. In one day. We were predicting 500,000 deaths by mid-February. This may be end of February now. TBD.


Vaccinations…are slowly (but surely) starting to gain speed and exponentially increase. Which is huge. We (the U.S.) are administering 9.71 doses per 100 people. In the last week, an average of 1.34 million doses per day were administered. Alaska leads with 13.4 doses administered per 100 people. This is followed by West Virginia (11 per 100) and New Mexico (10.5 per 100). Idaho, you’re last, with administering 6.0 doses per 100 people. (Texas you’re close to the bottom too, at 7.2 per 100 people).

Variants...are gaining speed.-B.1.1.7 variant: Has popped up in 541 Americans across 33 states (Florida has, by far, the most people followed by CA). -B.1.351 variant: Detected in 3 Americans in 2 states-P.1: Detected in 2 Americans in 1 state


We are, quite literally, in a race: vaccination rate vs. variant transmission rate. Hopefully we win before mid-March hits.

Love, YLE


Case data: COVID tracking project

Vaccination data: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

More vaccination data: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

Variant data: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html